La consultora PwC plantea sacar de la TUR a 19 millones de clientes

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Ésta es una de las ideas que recoge el informe «Diez temas candentes del sector eléctrico español para 2012« elaborado por la consultora a partir de las reflexiones de expertos de la industria y de los principales agentes del sector y que abogó además por revisar los pagos por capacidad, ralentizar la instalación de renovables, renovar los permisos nucleares en función de criterios de seguridad o estudiar vías alternativas para financiar las tecnologías ‘verdes’.

La rebaja de los usuarios que pueden acogerse a la tarifa de la luz que fija el Gobierno para cada trimestre -actualmente tienen derecho unos 24 millones- está en línea con los planteamientos del sector eléctrico para avanzar en la liberalización del mercado.

En su análisis del sector, PwC puso el acento en los problemas del sistema regulatorio español que «no ha demostrado ser seguro, por imprevisible, y porque algunas de las normativas que se aprueban no se cumplen» y en el organismo regulador que «ni es independiente ni ejerce las funciones que le deberían ser propias».

Para cambiar esto, PwC consideró «imprescindible» clarificar cuáles son las competencias del Estado y de las Comunidades Autónomas en materia energética y dotar al organismo regulador (la Comisión Nacional de la Energía) de poder sancionador y de capacidad para fijar las tarifas.

Según PwC es la inseguridad jurídica la que llevó a acumular un déficit tarifario de 28.800 millones de euros y que debe atajarse con una política tarifaria «coherente» con el objetivo de acabar con este desequilibrio en 2013. Para contenerlo, no solo es necesario elevar los ingresos mediante subidas de tarifas, sino también contener los costes del sistema, indicó el informe

A este respecto, dijeron que el precio final de la electricidad para los consumidores domésticos debe aumentar un 23% en 2012 y un 18% en 2013 para resolver el problema del déficit de tarifa y equilibrar el sistema eléctrico.

Desde el sector eléctrico, ya apuntaron a la necesidad de que la tarifa eléctrica suba al menos un 12% en 2012 para ir reduciendo este desfases que se acumuló al ser los ingresos del sistema insuficientes para cubrir los costes.

Sobre la revisión de la TUR, PwC cifró en el 30% en 2012 y en el 17% en 2013 las subidas necesarias en el capítulo de peajes, cuyo peso ronda el 50% en el precio final. Lo que supondría un aumento del precio final de la electricidad para el cliente doméstico de un 23% en 2012 y de un 18% en 2013.

Al margen del impacto de esta medida sobre los consumidores domésticos, el precio final para los clientes industriales debería subir un 8% el próximo año y un 4% en 2013, señaló.

«Estas subidas, en el actual entorno económico, resultan muy altas, pero hay que ponerlas en el contexto de lo que supone para el hogar. El coste de la electricidad pasaría a equivaler al 3% de los gastos totales del hogar, frente al 2,5% actual«, afirmó el socio de PwC, Joaquín Coronado. La subida igualaría el gasto doméstico en luz con el que se realiza en servicios como las telecomunicaciones.

Racionalización de las inversiones previstas

En este sentido, pidió una «racionalización de las inversiones previstas para los próximos años» tanto en el régimen ordinario como en el especial, en el que se incluyen las renovables, para las que recomendó un ritmo de instalación acorde a la eficiencia de cada tecnología.

De hecho, en cuanto a la composición del mix energético, el informe advirtió de que la penetración de la energía renovable prevista para el período 2011-2020 «es muy superior a las indicaciones de la Comisión Europea».

Por este motivo, PwC pidió una contención en la instalación de nueva potencia renovable hasta 2018, momento en el que se podrá acelerar la apuesta por estas tecnologías para cumplir los objetivos comunitarios. La medida evitará primas por 7.300 millones de euros, lo que supone un 11% de los 69.075 millones de coste total de estas tecnologías hasta 2020.

Según calculó PwC, las cinco principales eléctricas tienen pendientes derechos de cobro por 9.612 millones de euros, que deberían titulizarse en los mercados «lo antes posible» o, al menos, antes de julio de 2012.

Sobre el peso de la nuclear, PwC defendió que España «no puede permitirse prescindir» de esta energía y que cualquier decisión sobre el alargamiento de la vida útil de las centrales debe tomarse atendiendo «exclusivamente» a criterios de seguridad.

Durante la presentación del informe, el exministro y asesor de PwC, Jordi Sevilla, citó la necesidad de contener las emisiones de CO2 y el precio de la energía como dos aspectos que condicionarán las políticas energéticas en el futuro.

Para PwC, las previsiones del Gobierno para el conjunto de las actividades del sector quedaron «obsoletas» por los efectos de la crisis económica y es necesario replantear todas las inversiones a corto plazo «para evitar costes adicionales innecesarios».

Además, aludió al «momento complicado en España» y pronosticó «algunos trimestres malos» en 2012. «Si queremos cumplir el objetivo de situar el déficit público en el 4,4% del PIB, tendremos que recortar en torno a 30.000 millones de euros, mientras que el crecimiento estará cercano a cero», advirtió.

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