La AIE advierte de que los altos precios del crudo pueden amenazar la recuperación económica mundial
«Los datos preliminares de enero y febrero constatan que los elevados precios ya están haciendo mella en la demanda«, afirmó la institución dependiente de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE) en la última edición de su boletín mensual, donde advirtió de que «existe el riesgo real de que un precio sostenido superior a los 100 dólares por barril resulte incompatible con al ritmo esperado de recuperación».
Los signos de esa ralentización son los porcentajes de ascenso del consumo global, que han pasado del 4,8 % en diciembre (respecto al mismo mes del año anterior) al 4 % en enero y al 2,9 % en febrero, una evolución similar a la que se constató en 2008 cuando el petróleo había marcado techos históricos, indicó. Sobre todo, esa ralentización es mucho más marcada en países emergentes como China, Tailandia y Malasia.
Sin embargo, la AIE mantuvo sin cambios su estimación de demanda global de petróleo en 2010, hasta 87,9 millones de barriles diarios, y para 2011, hasta los 89,4 millones de barriles diarios (mb/d), lo que supuso un incremento de la demanda del 1,6%.
La razón es que revisaron al alza las previsiones para Japón, que va a consumir más hidrocarburos para compensar la desconexión de varias de sus centrales nucleares y para hacer frente a los trabajos de reconstrucción por el tsunami. En total, la demanda de Japón aumentará este año en 30.000 barriles diarios respecto a 2010, cuando antes de la catástrofe se esperaba una disminución de 120.000 barriles diarios.
Este repunte excepcional de Japón va a quedar compensado por una rebaja de las expectativas de consumo para Europa y, sobre todo, en países como Kuwait, Brasil y Rusia.
La AIE avisó de que si el volumen de crudo puesto en el mercado se mantuviera todo el año a los niveles de marzo, las reservas industriales de los países de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE) podrían caer a umbrales a los que no se ha llegado en cinco años.
Es decir, que de los 59,2 días de consumo de reservas que había en febrero con 2.676 millones de barriles (50,8 millones menos que un mes antes) se pasaría a 57.
El problema es que esa situación se daría con un margen de producción excedentaria de la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP) limitada a 3,91 millones de barriles diarios, de los cuales 3,2 millones corresponden a Arabia Saudí.
En definitiva, una situación que «empieza a parecerse al fino margen de flexibilidad» que propició el ascenso de los precios del petróleo desde mediados de los años 2000.
Desde el punto de vista de la oferta, la producción mundial de petróleo disminuyó en 700.000 barriles de crudo al día, hasta 88,3 mb/d ante el menor suministro, próximo al 70%, procedente de Libia.
La producción de países ajenos a la Organización de Países Exportadores de petróleo (OPEP) creció en 200.000 barriles, hasta 53,3 mb/d, mientras que la oferta de crudo de la OPEP bajó en 890.000 barriles diarios, hasta 29,2 mb/d.
En marzo, las extracciones en Libia pasaron de 935.000 barriles diarios a 450.000, pero en la actualidad se ha anulado completamente por tres ataques de las fuerzas de Muamar el Gadafi contra yacimientos controlados por los rebeldes.
La AIE puso el acento en que el parón completo ha dado al traste con las esperanzas de una reactivación de la actividad, y que un restablecimiento «podría tardar varios meses», eso siempre a condición de que Gadafi no recurra a la «estrategia de tierra quemada» utilizada por Sadam Husein cuando se retiró de Kuwait.
Pero los problemas de aprovisionamiento mundial no se limitan a Libia, sino que hay una serie de países en Oriente Medio y el África subsahariana que viven una inestabilidad política que podría afectar a su producción de crudo, que representa unos 3 millones de barriles diarios.
Por eso, la agencia no dudó en hablar de un «entorno de alto riesgo» por el alto grado de incertidumbre en el mercado.
El precio del petróleo cae un 4% tras las advertencias de la AIE
El precio del barril de petróleo de calidad Brent del Mar del Norte, de referencia en Europa, registró una caída del 4% en sólo una sesión después de que la AIE advirtiera del impacto sobre la demanda y la recuperación económica de los altos precios del crudo.
Así, el precio del barril de Brent llegaba a cotizar a 120 dólares, frente al máximo intradiario de 125,34 dólares que había llegado a registrar durante la sesión, que había iniciado a 123,34 dólares.
Por su parte, el precio del barril de Texas, de referencia en EEUU, caía hasta los 105,6 dólares, desde un máximo intradiario de 110,24 dólares.
Por su parte, en el mercado de divisas el euro mantenía su fortaleza frente al billete verde alrededor de 1,446 dólares, por encima de los 1,4431 dólares de la apertura, aunque lejos de los 1,4519 dólares del máximo de la sesión.
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