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Según consta en el borrador de la «Planificación energética indicativa» de acuerdo con lo dispuesto en la Ley de Economía Sostenible (LES), la punta de demanda eléctrica peninsular para 2020 alcanzará los 55.500 megavatios (MW) en el escenario más probable, una cifra que no requerirá de una potencia adicional.
En dicho periodo, el consumo de energía final en España alcanzará además valores sólo «ligeramente» superiores a los actuales, con 102.220 kilotoneladas equivalentes de petróleo (ktep) en 2020.
Dentro de la estructura de generación eléctrica, destacará el aumento del peso de la electricidad, del gas y de las renovables, que permitirán compensar un fuerte descenso del consumo de productos petrolíferos.
Desglosado por fuentes, el documento contempla que el consumo final de carbón recupere sus niveles anteriores a la crisis y continúe concentrándose en el sector de la siderurgia y del cemento, a pesar de que no se espera un aumento de su capacidad.
El consumo final de productos petrolíferos continuará cayendo a una tasa media del 2,1% anual en el citado período y seguirá perdiendo peso en la estructura de consumo, aunque será el principal componente del «mix» energético, con un peso del 38,4% del total en 2020.
Por su parte, el gas natural evolucionará de una forma más moderada en la próxima década y su consumo final, en el escenario central, continuará creciendo a una media del 1,3% al año, superior en la primera mitad del período y menor posteriormente hasta alcanzar el 18,4% en 2020.
El texto recoge además que la demanda de energía eléctrica aumente a una tasa media del 2,4%, en tanto que las renovables alcanzarán un consumo de 8.070 ktep al final del período.
Por sectores, el del transporte moderará su consumo energético debido a la mejora de la eficiencia de los vehículos convencionales y a su sustitución parcial por otros eléctricos. Para 2020 se espera que de un parque de 25 millones de automóviles, el 10% serán eléctricos o híbridos.
En el sector de los servicios continuará aumentando la demanda gracias al crecimiento de su actividad, por encima de la media de la economía, a pesar de la mejora de eficiencia, mientras que en la industria se producirá una caída del consumo, especialmente por su eficiencia y por la reducción de su peso en la economía.
Por otra parte, el consumo de biocarburantes llegará hasta los 2.713 ktep en 2020 y alcanzará el objetivo fijado por la Unión Europea.
El sector residencial también registrará una moderación en el crecimiento del consumo de energía en la próxima década, como consecuencia del pequeño aumento previsto del número de hogares. El de servicios mantendrá, sin embargo, su crecimiento tanto en actividad como en consumo.
Para 2020 se prevé que las renovables aporten el 20,8% de la energía final y que la intensidad energética mejore un 2% anual.
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