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Ayer, en lo que se refiere al sector eléctrico, se lanzó un posible «globo sonda» especialmente inquietante, como trataremos de analizar.
En ese contexto, el diario Expansión publicaba que, en el ámbito energético el Partido Popular propondría imponer una tasa a las tecnologías hidráulica y nuclear, lo que significaría, de facto, que el Partido Popular estaría aplicando el programa del Partido Socialista Obrero Español. Programa que, en su edición 2011 en el ámbito energético, era de carácter retroprogresivo y antimercado. De hecho, si consultan los programas electorales en materia de energía, reproducidos íntegramente en nuestro medio, podrán comprobar cómo esta promesa pertenecía al candidato Rubalcaba. Primera pregunta, ¿a quién han elegido los votantes y respecto a qué programa? ¿Había un pacto off the record entre los dos partidos para dar cobertura a esta medida?.
En segundo lugar, también esta propuesta vendría a evidenciar la vacuidad del programa político de los populares en materia fiscal, que prometía mantener los impuestos y no subir la presión impositiva. La imposición de una tasa o de un nuevo gravamen tiene también contenido tributario y supondría un incremento de los impuestos o de la carga fiscal de nuestro país. Con independencia de esto, el hecho es que los impuestos o tasas se incorporan o añaden en los precios y se trasladan a los precios de los mercados. Salvo que, obviamente, se intervengan o se falsifique el funcionamiento del mercado.
Y habría que tratar nuevamente lo que sería el objeto tributario del deseo, es decir, si ese objeto tributario es la generación de electricidad de forma discrecional y por determinadas tecnologías, la pregunta es por qué. Ya la Junta de Castilla y León tuvo severos problemas para identificar un objeto tributario para la fijación de un impuesto revanchista frente a las empresas en uno de los lances jurídicos contra el decreto del carbón.
En ese momento, ya se apreció la difícil tesitura de si ese impuesto tendría naturaleza medioambiental (lo que era difícil de justificar por su injerencia en otros mecanismos medioambientales o porque se castigara a tecnologías no emisoras de carbono). Las filtraciones de ayer apuntan al asentimiento al aserto retroprogresivo consistente en que se trata de dos tecnologías ya amortizadas, pese a que la realidad de los balances y la contabilidad financiera contradigan una falsedad que, por mucho repetida, no pasa a ser verdad. Realmente, el objetivo es la discriminación de tecnologías y la ruptura de mercado. Importante riesgo, además de tratarse de un asunto de clara litigiosidad y con posiblidades de embarrar el terreno de juego.
Lo que parece advertirse, a raíz de esa información, es que el Partido Popular no se plantea una política de precios realistas de la energía, evitando a cualquier precio las subidas del precio de la electricidad, manteniendo su naturaleza de precio intervenido como sea. De hecho, Expansión publicaba una comparativa más o menos tramposa que venía a insinuar que los precios de la electricidad habían subido más con el PSOE que con el PP, sin atender a razones de precio del petróleo, materias primas internacionales, evolución de los mercados, coyunturas de oferta y demanda, etc…. Es decir, a pelo. Si este es el rigor del análisis que tendremos a partir de ahora, hay que preocuparse muy seriamente.
Por otra parte, hay que recordar que el recurso al déficit tarifario ha sido lugar común de todos los Gobiernos populares y socialistas de los últimos diez años. Por tanto, la «tecnología» de fijación de precios, intervención y generación de aplazamiento y déficit está creada y procede de una visión política y no económica del problema energético. La pregunta es si los nuevos responsables vendrán a hacer las cosas bien.
Evidentemente, un gobierno no se puede plantear que su objetivo sea garantizar unos precios bajos de la electricidad como último bastión de la intervención pública, sino tener una política energética global, realista y coherente. Reducir la política energética al control de precios es una simplificación de una zafiedad económica insostenible y de una visión de mercado muy reducida.
Del mismo modo, se podrían advertir tres cuestiones más de cumplirse este supuesto anticipo. La primera sería la poca convicción del nuevo equipo energético en el funcionamiento del mercado eléctrico (terreno abonado por las instituciones energéticas españolas, totalmente a la deriva) y, consecuentemente, la poca convicción en cuestiones básicas como son la seguridad jurídica y la estabilidad regulatoria. Esperemos que el aprendizaje relativo a la confianza, los mercados financieros, de capitales y de inversión no se produzca a sangre y fuego nuevamente.
La segunda sería el triunfo en el seno de las huestes populares de las posiciones más populistas y de cobertura ideológica izquierdista y demagógica para posibilitar ajustes en otros terrenos, evitando la impopularidad en la gestión al precio que sea. Estas medidas serían un perfecto ejercicio ejemplificante y muy concentrado sectorialmente de cara a la imagen pública del nuevo gobierno. En este alineamiento de fuerzas, parece que ganarían las posiciones defendidas por Álvaro Nadal, frente a las que ha defendido FAES en sus propuestas. Mala señal.
Y, finalmente, algo muy preocupante es cómo el nuevo equipo enfila un carril de aceleración para formular medidas en el ámbito energético sin una visión global, sin conocimiento suficiente y sin un modelo energético total (algo que va más allá al mix de generación, en contra de lo que se suele afirmar).
Mientras, ajenos a este contexto, aparecen llamamientos por parte de los concernidos desde distintas instancias sectoriales para que el nuevo gobierno efectúe una revisión regulatoria del sector energético con carácter urgente. Crucemos los dedos.
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