El sector eléctrico calcula que la luz debería aumentar un 12% en enero
El cálculo parte por un lado de que la variable que condiciona la mitad de la TUR, correspondiente a los costes regulados, debe subir entre el 20% y el 25% en enero para que en 2012 el déficit de tarifa se sitúe por debajo del tope legal de 1.500 millones para el ejercicio.
Por otro lado, el coste de la energía, que marca la otra mitad de la tarifa, registrará previsiblemente un ligero encarecimiento en la subasta entre comercializadoras de último recurso del próximo 20 de diciembre.
De esta forma, la subida de los peajes que recogen los costes regulados supondría una presión al alza sobre el recibo de entre el 10% y el 12,5% que difícilmente quedará mitigada por el otro componente de la tarifa, el del coste de la energía.
La subida de la TUR en enero permitiría no solo equilibrar el sistema, sino compensar la bajada de peajes del 12% aplicada por el Ministerio de Industria en octubre con el objetivo de forzar una congelación de la tarifa de luz. Esta medida se encuentra recurrida por las eléctricas en los tribunales.
El nuevo Ejecutivo deberá gestionar a partir de ahora un sistema eléctrico que acumula un déficit de 20.000 millones de euros, 9.125 millones de ellos titulizados en los mercados de deuda, y que al menos hasta 2013 no será capaz de cubrir sus costes.
Las opciones del PP pasan por elevar los ingresos del sistema mediante subidas de tarifas o por reducir los costes, entre los que figuran los incentivos al carbón, las primas a las renovables o los pagos por capacidad para el gas.
Las eléctricas abogaron por trasladar las primas a las renovables a los Presupuestos Generales del Estado (PGE) y por paralizar los nuevos proyectos solares para evitar que aumente esta partida de incentivos. Además, pidieron que las tecnologías ‘verdes’ se financien con los ingresos de las subastas de CO2.
A la espera de la revisión de tarifas de enero, 2011 se cierra con dos subidas de la TUR. La primera, en enero, consistió en un incremento del 9,8%, mientras que la segunda se aplicó en julio y fue del 1,5%, de modo que la tarifa se ha encarecido más del 10% en lo que va de año.
El precio de la luz viene subiendo cada año desde 2003, aunque solo desde 2006 (5,28%) lo hace por encima del IPC. En 2010 subió un 2,6%, en 2009 un 3,5% y en 2008 un 9,08%.
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