Fabrizio Hernández calcula que el coste de las energías renovables se reducirá cerca de un 30% en 2020
En su intervención en el IX Encuentro del Sector Energético, organizado por IESE Business School y PWC, Hernández explicó que espera que «la prima equivalente vaya descendiendo paulatinamente, con reducciones del 30% con respecto a la actual», lo que ejercerá una presión a la baja sobre los precios, ya que, en el caso de las renovables, «los costes de acceso, que hoy representan dos tercios del coste total de estas energías, pasarán a ser menos de la mitad del coste total».
Además, dijo, el peso de las renovables crecerá a un ritmo del 4% anual hasta 2020 e irán tendiendo a un modelo de «generación distribuida que favorezca el autoconsumo», lo que, sumado a sus mejoras tecnológicas, hará que estas fuentes sean competitivas en los próximos diez años, indicó.
El secretario de Estado de Energía también aseguró que «no se precisa nueva potencia firme adicional hasta bien entrada la década» y advirtió de que los entre 1.500 y 2.000 nuevos megavatios (MW) de fuentes convencionales que podrían instalarse antes de 2020 «tendrán perspectivas de funcionar pocas horas».
En esta jornada dedicada al «Impacto de la Política Energética en la Competitividad del Sector», incidió en que es de esperar que las tensiones geopolíticas con los países productores de petróleo aumenten en los próximos años. De ahí la importancia de seguir avanzando en la reducción de la dependencia energética con respecto a estos países, una de las principales debilidades del sistema energético español.
En este sentido, atribuyó a las renovables la mejora del autoabastecimiento en los últimos cinco años (ha pasado del 20% al 25,8%). Por ello, afirmó, «hay que seguir impulsando la entrada de renovables».
«La apuesta por las renovables no es a corto plazo», dijo el secretario de Estado. «No hay que valorar lo que me va a costar mañana, sino en una perspectiva más amplia. Hoy son más caras, pero la mejora tecnológica ha permitido cada vez costes más reducidos, y cabe pensar que las renovables sean totalmente competitivas en los próximos 10 años«. Las renovables, añadió, no son «un lujo ni una apuesta inabordable». Su fomento se debe hacer «desde una regulación que promueva su desarrollo progresivo, incentive la innovación tecnológica y facilite la convergencia hacia la competitividad frente a tecnologías fósiles».
Destacó, asimismo, el impacto de estas fuentes en la creación de un tejido industrial innovador y en la creación de empleo, lo que supone un retorno «más allá de los efectos a corto plazo».
Las previsiones del Gobierno pasan por que la demanda energética aumente en torno a un 2,4% anual de media hasta 2020, pero la necesidad de energía para producir riqueza económica disminuirá un 2% al año, de modo que el consumo final apenas aumentará un 0,2% al cierre de la década, según los datos del Gobierno.
En este sentido, la previsión es que los ciclos combinados de gas «sigan siendo la tecnología marginal durante la gran mayoría de las horas, que ejerza de respaldo a las renovables y a la que se incentive por su disponibilidad. Seguirá habiendo, por lo tanto, un hueco térmico «relativamente pequeño», aunque según sus cálculos, «no se precisa de potencia firme adicional hasta bien entrada la década». Esta, además, «funcionará pocas horas».
Hernández incidió asimismo en la necesidad de aumentar la disponibilidad de los ciclos combinados cuando haga falta. Sin embargo, «el exceso de capacidad en un momento determinado tampoco debe reflejarse en unos costes excesivos. Tampoco hay que pagar el exceso de disponibilidad», dijo el secretario de Estado, que planteo la posible «hibernación» en esta tecnología.
«En breve» el Gobierno aprobará el nuevo plan de renovales a 2020. En él se apostará por el uso de las renovables térmicas y por el autoconsumo.
Por otro lado, Hernández adelantó sin dar detalles la posibilidad de adoptar medidas como un modelo de «hibernación de determinadas plantas térmicas» de gas natural que permita «controlar su disponibilidad» al tiempo que se controlan sus costes.
Finalmente, en declaraciones a la prensa, y preguntado por la decisión del Gobierno alemán de cerrar sus plantas nucleares, Hernández aclaró que en España «no hay planes de modificar la política nuclear que hemos seguido hasta ahora» y consideró que el desarrollo de las renovables, tras cinco años de «lanzamientos», entra ahora en una fase de «consolidación».
Además, señaló que Industria ha tenido «cuidado» con los peajes eléctricos que pagan los consumidores industriales con el objeto de evitar una merma en su competitividad y advirtió de que la factura energética podría alcanzar este año 50.000 millones, lo equivalente a los ingresos del turismo y un 43% más que el año pasado.
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